Publications

Monograph

The Dictator’s Dilemma at the Ballot Box: Electoral Manipulation, Economic Maneuvering, and Political Order in Autocracies. 2022. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press (Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies Series).

Academic Articles and Book Chapters

[28] “Government Information and Popular Reactions in Autocracies: An Information Correction Experiment on COVID-19 in Kazakhstan.” Accepted at Political Studies. (with Susumu Annaka and Gento Kato)

[27] “Election Management Institutions as Catalysts for Autocratic Transformation.” 2026. Democratization. (with Matthew Charles Wilson) Online First. (Online Appendix)

[26] “Mass Reactions to Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Conjoint Experiments in Japan.” 2025. Online First. Political Behavior. (with Naoki Shimizu, Hidekuni Washida, and Yuki Yanai)

[25] “Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD): A New Data Set of National Election Dates.” 2025. (with Naoki Shimizu, Hidekuni Washida, and Yuki Yanai) Online First. Electoral Studies. (open access, ETAD data; Codebook; Online Appendix)

[24] “Political and Economic Protests in Authoritarian Regimes.” 2025. (with Austin M. Mitchell and Kana Inata) Online First. Public Choice (open access)

[23] “Tutelary Power and Autocratic Legitimacy: Experimental Evidence from Kazakhstan’s Diarchy.” 2025. (with Yuki Shiraito) The Journal of Politics. Online First. (supplementary materials and replication file)

[22] “Electoral Manipulation.” 2025. In Holly Ann Garnett and Toby S. James eds. The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Integrity, Chapter 14. Oxford University Press.

[21] “Challenges of Electoral Integrity in an Era of Overlapping Crises.” (with Leontine Loeber, Holly Ann Garnett, and Toby S. James) 2025. Election Law Journal.

[20] “Expectations, Gender Bias, and Bank of Japan Communication: Do the Japanese Trust Female Central Bankers?” 2025. (with Cristina Bodea and Andrew Kerner) National Institute Economic Review. Online First. (open access)

[19] “Democracy and State Development: Patterns of Public Spending in the First Two Waves of Democratization.” 2024. (with Austin M. Mitchell) Comparative Political Studies. Online First. (open access, supplementary materials; replication file)

[18] “Democratic Reforms in Dictatorships: Elite Divisions, Party Origins, and the Prospects of Political Liberalization.” (with Adrian del Rio) 2024. Comparative Political Studies. Online First. (open access, supplementary materials; replication file)

[17] “Unpacking Political Parties in Autocracies: What Party Structures Reveal About Party Strategies and Patterns of Regime Survival.” 2024. (with Erica Frantz) Democratization. 32-1: 210–233.

[16] “The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance.” 2024. (with Hisashi Kadoya and Yuki Yanai) Public Opinion Quarterly. nfae022 (open access, replication file; journal website; web appendix)

[15] “Autocratization and Development.” In Aurel Croissant and Luca Tomini eds. 2024. Routledge Handbook of Autocratization. Chapter 25.

[14] “Political Regimes and Refugee Entries: The Preferences and Decisions of Displaced Persons and Host Governments.” 2024. (with Yujin Woo) International Studies Quarterly. 68-2, sqae077 (open access, replication file; journal website; web appendix)

[13] “Varieties of Clientelism across Political Parties: New Measures of Patron-Client Relationships.” 2024. (with Hidekuni Washida) European Political Science Review. 16-2: 260-280 (open access, replication file; journal website; web appendix)

[12] “When Does the Honeymoon End? Electoral Cycles of Democratic Satisfaction in Africa.” 2023. (with Nicholas Kerr) Political Psychology 44-4: 709-728. (open access, web appendix)

[11] “Measuring National Refugee Policies: Recent Trends and Implications for Future Development.” 2023. (with Yujin Woo) Interdisciplinary Information Sciences 29-2: 109-117. (open access)

[10] “The Choice of Electoral Systems in Electoral Autocracies.” 2023. (with Eric C.C. Chang) Government and Opposition 58-1: 106-128. (Journal website; web appendix)

[9] “The Perils of Parliamentarism: Executive Selection Systems and Democratic Transitions from Electoral Authoritarianism.” 2022. (with Yuko Kasuya) Studies in Comparative International Development 57: 198-220. (web appendix)

[8] “Political Liberalization and Human Development: Dynamic Effects of Political Regime Change on Infant Mortality across Three Centuries (1800-2015).” 2021. (with Susumu Annaka) World Development 147 (open access, replication file; journal website; web appendix)

[7] “Blatant Election Fraud and the Value of a Vote.” 2021. Japanese Journal of Political Science 22-1: 1-14. (Replication file; journal website)

[6] “Economic Institutions and Autocratic Breakdown: Monetary Constraints and Fiscal Spending in Dominant-Party Regimes.” 2019. (with Cristina Bodea and Carolina Garriga) The Journal of Politics 81-2: 601-615. (replication file; journal website)

[5] “Ethnic Inequality and the Strength of Ethnic Identities in Sub-Saharan Africa.” 2018. (with Christian Houle) Political Behavior 40-4: 909-932. (replication file; blog post; journal website)

[4] “Central Bank Independence and Fiscal Policy: Incentives to Spend and Constraints on the Executive.” 2017. (with Cristina Bodea) British Journal of Political Science 47-1: 47-70. (replication file; blog post; journal website)

[3] “Elections, Ethnic Parties, and Ethnic Identification in New Democracies: Evidence from the Baltic States.” 2016. (with Ryo Nakai) Studies in Comparative International Development 51: 124-146. (blog post; journal website)

[2] “Oil and Civil Conflict: Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?” (with Cristina Bodea and Raju Jan Singh) 2016. World Development 78:1-12. (journal website)

[1] “Can Contentious Elections Overthrow Leaders?” In Pippa Norris, Richard Frank, and Ferran Martinetz i Coma eds. 2015. Contentious Elections: From Ballots to Barricades. New York: Routledge, pp.64-85. (book website)

Published Datasets

[1] Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset V1 (with Anna Lührmann and others)

[2] Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD) (with Naoki Shimizu, Hidekuni Washida, and Yuki Yanai)