The Dictator’s Dilemma at the Ballot Box: Electoral Manipulation, Economic Maneuvering, and Political Order in Autocracies. 2022. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press (Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies Series). (blog post; open access e-book; podcast; review [JJPS])

Peer-Reviewed Articles

[1] “When Does the Honeymoon End? Electoral Cycles of Democratic Satisfaction in Africa.” Accepted at Political Psychology (with Nicholas Kerr)

[2] “Measuring National Refugee Policies: Recent Trends and Implications for Future Development.” Forthcoming at Interdisciplinary Information Sciences (with Yujin Woo)

[3] “The Peril of Parliamentarism: Executive Selection Systems and Democratic Transitions from Electoral Authoritarianism.” 2022. (with Yuko Kasuya) Studies in Comparative International Development. (web appendix)

[4] “Political Liberalization and Human Development: Dynamic Effects of Political Regime Change on Infant Mortality across Three Centuries (1800-2015).” 2021. (with Susumu Annaka) World Development 147. (Replication file; journal website; web appendix)

[5] “The Choice of Electoral Systems in Electoral Autocracies.” 2021. (with Eric C.C. Chang) Government and Opposition, First View. (Journal website; web appendix)

[6] “Blatant Election Fraud and the Value of a Vote.” 2021. Japanese Journal of Political Science 22-1: 1-14. (Replication file; journal website)

[7] “Economic Institutions and Autocratic Breakdown: Monetary Constraints and Fiscal Spending in Dominant-Party Regimes.” 2019. (with Cristina Bodea and Carolina Garriga) the Journal of Politics 81-2: 601-615. (Replication file; journal website)

[8] “Ethnic Inequality and the Strength of Ethnic Identities in Sub-Saharan Africa.” 2018. (with Christian Houle) Political Behavior 40-4: 909-932. (Replication file; blog post; journal website)

[9] “Central Bank Independence and Fiscal Policy: Incentives to Spend and Constraints on the Executive.” 2017. (with Cristina Bodea) British Journal of Political Science 47-1: 47-70. (Replication file; blog post; journal website)

[10] “Elections, Ethnic Parties, and Ethnic Identification in New Democracies: Evidence from the Baltic States.” 2016. (with Ryo Nakai) Studies in Comparative International Development 51: 124-146. (blog post; journal website)

[11] “Oil and Civil Conflict: Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?” (with Cristina Bodea and Raju Jan Singh). 2016. World Development 78:1-12. (journal website)

[12] “Can Contentious Elections Overthrow Leaders?” 2015. In Pippa Norris, Richard Frank, and Ferran Martinetz i Coma eds. Contentious Elections: From Ballots to Barricades. New York: Routledge, pp.64-85. (book website)


[1] Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset V1 (with Anna Lührmann and others)