Dictator’s Dilemma at the Ballot Box: Electoral Manipulation, Economic Maneuvering, and Political Order in Autocracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press (The Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies Series). 2022.
* Open access link to the book (UMP Ebook Collection)
* Reviewed in Japanese Journal of Political Science (Professor Fransisco Cantu) and Governance (Professor Yujin Woo).
* Podcast: The Economics Review
Over the last two decades, political institutions in dictatorships have been one of the most researched topics in the field of comparative politics. The Dictator’s Dilemma at the Ballot Box explores the manners in which autocrats design elections and what consequences those elections have on political order in authoritarian regimes.
Specifically, the book argues that dictators face a dilemma when designing elections: manipulated elections lose useful benefits dictators could enjoy at the ballot box, but excessively transparent elections make it difficult for them to “win big.” With this electoral dilemma in hand, the book contends that when the dictator has the capability of mobilizing public support through maneuvering of macroeconomic policy, he is less likely to resort to electoral manipulation like blatant electoral fraud and electoral institutions with high disproportionality. And when the autocrat fails to deal with the electoral dilemma, autocratic elections backfire on autocrats in the form of popular protests, coups, and the opposition’s stunning election victories. The theory of autocratic elections is tested on novel cross-national datasets on electoral manipulation and economic maneuvering; various illustrations from autocracies around the globe; and structured, in-depth comparative case studies of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan based on eight months of fieldwork.
日本語版: 東島 雅昌『民主主義を装う権威主義: 世界化する選挙独裁とその論理』 千倉書房 （「叢書 ２１世紀の国際環境と日本 ００８」２０２３年）
「近年、権威主義体制の政治指導者の中に選挙を巧妙にコントロールし、あたかも民主主義の手続きに則っているように自分の統治を正当化する者が現れている。独裁体制研究のフロントランナーがそのからくりを解き明かす」（「紹介」より）
・書評: 朝日新聞 (前田健太郎 東大教授), Sunaharayのブログ（砂原庸介 神戸大教授), 西東京日記（山下ゆ氏）
Masaaki Higashijima 